Many people think the secret to successful horse racing handicapping is picking winners. They reason that the better you are at figuring out which runner will win, the more money you will make betting on horses. While that is partially true, there are some points that need to be considered if you’re serious about being a professional horse player.
First of all, picking winners can mean different things to different people. To me, a winner is a bet that 토토사이트 a profit over the long run. If I make 100 bets in a month, and make a profit from those bets, then I figure I’ve been picking winners. I may have 25 winners in that group or I may have 10. Another horse player may play the same 100 races and pick 30 winners, but if he or she doesn’t make a profit, then I have done better.
The whole idea is to make money from the horse races and your bets. Those wagers that consistently show a positive ROI (return on investment) are the ones that are really the best bets. So when I evaluate the runners in a race I am trying to estimate each one’s chances of winning. Next, I look at the morning line to see just how close the track handicapper and I are on our evaluation.
The morning line notwithstanding, it isn’t until a minute to post that I know the real story as to which of the horses is the best bet. It will be the one with a better chance of winning than the crowd’s odds indicate. For instance, if they bet a runner down to 3-1, it will pay $6 for every $2 wager. If I estimate its chances of winning at 50% however, it will pay $6 and win half the time, so I only have to invest $4 for every $6 I collect. That is a 50% profit.
The trick, of course, is in finding these little gems and they are few and far between. While you may see track handicappers and touts advertising best bets, what they really mean is horses that are most likely to win. Sometimes that is the same thing, but other times, a horse may only be likely to win one out of ten races, but still be a profitable wager.